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Broadgate: Market News 14/3

14 March 2013

Stocks edged up on Wednesday, with the Dow rising for the ninth straight session to another record, buoyed by surprisingly strong retail sales that suggested the economy is gaining momentum.

The Dow Jones industrial average’s nine-day winning streak is the longest consecutive run since November 1996.

But trading volume was light. Moves have been muted in recent days as investors consolidate positions after a strong run-up in the first three months of the year. Still, weakness in stocks has been met with buying, which helped propel the market’s advance.

The broader S&P 500 is within striking distance of its all-time closing high of 1,565.15 and about 1 percent away from all-time intraday high of 1,576.09 – both set in 2007.

“I think we will soon see the S&P at all-time high levels. I don’t think the market has topped yet, and there is still strength to move the market higher,” said Ari Wald, technical strategist at C&Co/PrinceRidge in New York.

“Will we see a correction of 10 percent or so soon? Not imminently. We have not seen a divergence of behavior yet where participants become more selective on which stocks to buy.”

International Business Machine and Boeing Co were the Dow’s top two gainers. IBM shot up 0.7 percent to $212.06. Boeing also jumped 0.7 percent – to $84.75 at the close.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 5.22 points, or 0.04 percent, to 14,455.28, another record closing high. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 2.04 points, or 0.13 percent, to 1,554.52. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.80 points, or 0.09 percent, to end at 3,245.12.

Signs of strength in the economy and the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy have helped U.S. equities accelerate their advance. The blue-chip Dow is up 10.3 percent for the year and the benchmark S&P 500 index has gained 9 percent.

Wednesday’s retail sales report reinforced the view that the U.S. economy has momentum, even with the obstacles the recovery is facing. Sales increased 1.1 percent in February, the largest increase since September.

Investors had been looking for signs of any impact on spending from stubbornly high unemployment and a higher payroll tax that went into effect at the start of the year.

The Morgan Stanley retail index gained 0.7 percent.

Coach shares rose 1.8 percent to $49.67 after Citigroup raised its rating on the luxury leather goods company’s stock to “buy” from “neutral.

Walgreen jumped 4.2 percent to $42.78 after UBS raised its rating to a “buy” from “neutral”, and lifted its price target to $48 from $41 on the stock of the largest U.S. drugstore chain.

But Express Inc shares slid 3.2 percent to $18.25 after the apparel retailer posted fourth-quarter earnings and said it was off to a slow start in the first quarter.

Spectrum Pharmaceuticals shares lost 37.3 percent to $7.79 after the biotechnology company forecast full-year sales well below analysts’ estimates.

Volume was below average, with roughly 5.5 billion shares trading on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with the 2012 average daily closing volume of about 6.45 billion.

Advancers outnumbered decliners on the New York Stock Exchange by a ratio of 17 to 13. On the Nasdaq, the positive breadth was slightly wider, with about seven stocks rising for every five that fell.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar hovered at seven-month highs against a basket of currencies on Thursday as investors warmed to the greenback following bullish economic data, while dovish comments from New Zealand’s central bank sent the kiwi dollar packing.

The dollar index stood at 82.899, having climbed as far as 83.055 after U.S. retail sales rose at their fastest clip in five months in February. The report is the latest in a string of data putting the world’s biggest economy well on the recovery path.

Against the yen, the greenback edged up to 96.09, bringing it within a hair’s breadth of a 3-1/2 year peak of 96.71 set on Tuesday.

While the improving economic picture is unlikely to compel the Federal Reserve to reduce its monetary policy support, it has helped boost demand for the greenback, particularly against the euro and yen, both of which are facing bigger economic problems of their own at home.

For the yen, expectations of aggressive policy easing from the Bank of Japan and talk of an inter-meeting move are keeping investors well away, while economic weakness in the euro zone and political uncertainty in Italy are weighing on the euro.

The common currency skidded to a three-month low of $1.2923, before finding a tentative footing to last trade at $1.2958. It has shed nearly 6 percent from a peak of $1.3711 set early last month. Support is seen around $1.2906, a level representing the 76.4 percent retracement of its Nov-Feb rally.

The euro also slipped against the yen, dipping to 124.55 and putting more distance from a 34-month peak of 127.71 set last month.

Further weighing on the euro was a lukewarm bond auction in Italy that saw investors demand higher yields for its three-year paper, following a recent credit ratings downgrade triggered by the country’s political paralysis.

Investors also took aim at the kiwi dollar after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand pledged to keep its cash rate steady at a record low 2.5 percent this year and even flagged a possible cut should certain conditions be met.

The RBNZ also warned that worsening drought conditions throughout the country could have a marked negative impact on growth.

The kiwi traded at $0.8189, having slid to a 2-1/2 month low of $0.8162. It also fell against its Australian counterpart, which climbed to two-month highs of NZ$1.2605.

“The RBNZ has come across outwardly sounding more dovish than last time, explicitly raising 2‑way risks around its outlook,” said Chris Tennent-Brown, FX economist at Commonwealth Bank.

“A key factor on the dovish side was a bigger emphasis on the potential for OCR cuts in response to the NZD remaining at recent levels for 9 months longer than the RBNZ has factored in.”

The Australian dollar softened in sympathy with its Antipodean peer, easing below $1.0300 from a high of $1.0336. It’s immediate fortunes will be determined by the outcome of a closely watched employment report due at 0030 GMT.

Forecasts centred on a modest rise of 9,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to creep up to 5.5 percent. Given that markets have nearly priced out the risk of an interest rate cut this year, any downside surprise could see investors quickly factor one back in, knocking the Aussie lower.

Elsewhere in Asia, the Bank of Korea will announce its policy decision around 0100 GMT. Analysts polled by Reuters expect South Korea’s central bank to keep interest rates steady for a fifth straight month.

In Europe, the Swiss National Bank is also expected to hold fire at its policy meeting, but will keep defending the lid it set on the franc at least through 2013 and probably well into 2014, a Reuters poll found.

The euro was little changed around 1.2345 Swiss francs, well off the SNB’s ceiling of 1.20.

Source:  Reuters.com

The information set out herein has been obtained from various public sources and is by way of information only. Broadgate Financial can accept no liability of any sort in relation thereto and readers should obtain their own verification of any statement before making any decision which may have any financial or other impact.

Neither the information nor the opinions herein constitute, or are they to be construed as, an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell investments.

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