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Broadgate: Market News 18/1

18 January 2013

Stronger-than-expected data on housing starts and jobless claims lit a fire under stocks on Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 to a five-year high and its third day of gains.

A pair of economic reports lifted investors’ sentiment. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to a five-year low last week and housing starts jumped last month to the highest since June 2008.

Strength in the housing and labor markets is key to sustained growth and higher corporate profits, helping to bring out buyers even on a day when earnings reports were mixed.

Gains were tempered by weakness in the financial sector, with Bank of America down 4.2 percent to $11.28 and Citigroup off 2.9 percent to $41.24 after their results.

In other negative earnings news, shares of chipmaker Intel fell 5.2 percent to $21.49 in extended-hours trading after the company forecast quarterly revenue that fell short of analysts’ expectations. Intel had ended the regular session up 2.6 percent at $22.68.

The S&P 500 ended at its highest since December 2007 and now sits just 5.6 percent from its all-time closing high of 1,565.15.

“Having consolidated really for the last two weeks, the fact that we broke out, I think that that is sucking in quite a bit of money,” said James Dailey, portfolio manager of TEAM Asset Strategy Fund in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 84.79 points, or 0.63 percent, at 13,596.02. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 8.31 points, or 0.56 percent, at 1,480.94. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 18.46 points, or 0.59 percent, at 3,136.00.

Better-than-expected earnings and revenue reported by online marketplace eBay late Wednesday helped the stock gain 2.7 percent to $54.33.

In the housing sector, PulteGroup Inc shares gained 4.9 percent to $20.29 and Toll Brothers Inc advanced 3.1 percent to $35.99. The PHLX housing sector index climbed 2.4 percent, reaching its highest close since August 2007.

Semiconductor shares .SOX rose 2 percent to the highest close in eight months.

Financials were the only S&P 500 sector to register a slight decline for the day.

Bank of America’s fourth-quarter profit fell as it took more charges to clean up mortgage-related problems. Citigroup posted $2.32 billion of charges for layoffs and lawsuits.

Energy shares led gains on the Dow as U.S. crude oil prices jumped more than 1 percent. Shares of Exxon Mobil were up 0.8 percent at $90.20 while shares of Chevron were up 0.7 percent at $114.75.

S&P 500 earnings are expected to have risen 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter, Thomson Reuters data showed. Expectations for the quarter have fallen considerably since October when a 9.9 percent gain was estimated.

Volume was roughly 6.5 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with the 2012 average daily closing volume of about 6.45 billion.

Advancers outpaced decliners on the NYSE by about 22 to 7 and on the Nasdaq by about 2 to 1.

Currencies

The yen hit a 2-1/2 year low against the dollar on Friday as markets positioned for the Bank of Japan to take bold action to tackle deflation at a policy-setting meeting early next week.

Sources familiar with the BOJ’s thinking told Reuters the central bank, under relentless pressure from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, will consider making an open-ended commitment to buy assets until 2 percent inflation is foreseen.

Such an open-ended asset buying scheme would exceed market expectations, which have been centred around the BOJ setting a 2 percent inflation target and possibly increasing its asset-buying programme at its Jan. 21-22 meeting.

While the dollar may run into some profit-taking against the yen after the BOJ’s policy decision on Tuesday, it is ultimately likely to head higher, said Hiroshi Maeba, head of FX trading Japan for UBS in Tokyo.

“There might be a dip after the BOJ, but the drop could turn out to be surprisingly shallow, and I think from there the direction will be a rise towards 93 yen to 95 yen,” he said.

The dollar rose as high as 90.21 yen on trading platform EBS, the greenback’s strongest level since June 2010. That marked a gain of some 14 percent compared to a trough hit in early November.

The dollar last changed hands at 90.11 yen, up 0.3 percent from late U.S. trade on Thursday.

Adding to the pressure against the yen were comments by Koichi Hamada, Abe’s special economic adviser, saying a weakening of the yen to 95 or 100 to the dollar would be nothing to worry about.

On technical charts, initial resistance for dollar/yen is seen around 90.34, the 76.4 percent retracement of its May 2010-October 2011 fall. A break there brings the 2010 high of 94.99 into focus.

Maeba at UBS said one possible short-term target for the dollar was 90.75 yen. Dollar-selling from options players might emerge near that level, where there is an option barrier, he said.

If the BOJ were to shift to an open-ended asset buying scheme, an additional focal point would be the pace of asset purchases, said Rob Ryan, strategist for RBS in Singapore.

“What will be important is an open-ended commitment … plus an increase in the rate of purchases,” Ryan said.

“Open-ended purchases at a pace dictated by the BOJ with no commitment on that pace and no commitment by when they will reach two percent inflation is much less powerful as a signal,” he said.

Traders said the risk now, of course, is if the BOJ undershoots expectations.

“We think there is some risk of disappointment at the BOJ meeting and scope for a yen rally. It is now consensus that the BOJ will move to a two percent inflation target. However, more aggressive measures may not come until closer to the nomination of the new governor/deputy governors in Q2,” said Kiran Kowshik, strategist at BNP Paribas.

Underscoring the yen’s weakness, the Australian dollar scaled a high around 95.00 yen on Friday, its highest level since August 2008.

Earlier, the Australian dollar got a brief lift against the greenback after data showed that China’s economy grew 7.9 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, snapping seven straight quarters of slowing expansion.

The Aussie dollar later sagged back, however, and last fetched $1.0523, down 0.2 percent on the day.

The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.3385, hovering near an 11-month high of $1.3404 set on Monday.

Source:  Reuters.com

The information set out herein has been obtained from various public sources and is by way of information only. Broadgate Financial can accept no liability of any sort in relation thereto and readers should obtain their own verification of any statement before making any decision which may have any financial or other impact.

Neither the information nor the opinions herein constitute, or are they to be construed as, an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell investments.

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