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Broadgate: Market News 20/12

20 December 2012

U.S. stocks sold off late in the day to close at session lows on Wednesday as talks to avert a year-end fiscal crisis turned sour, even as investors still expect a deal.

The S&P 500 slipped after a two-day rally that took the benchmark index to its highest close in two months. Defensive-oriented shares led the decliners, including health care and consumer staples.

General Motors bucked the overall weakness to surge 6.6 percent to $27.18 after the automaker said it will buy back 200 million of its shares from the U.S. Treasury, which plans to sell the rest of its GM stake over the next 15 months.

President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans are struggling to come up with a deal to avoid early 2013 tax hikes and spending cuts that many economists say could send the U.S. economy into recession.

House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, said in a one-minute press conference that his chamber will pass a proposal that Obama had already threatened to veto as it spares many wealthy Americans from tax hikes needed to balance the budget. Obama has already agreed to reductions in benefits for senior citizens.

“My guess is they’re close to a deal, and right before, it looks like the deal is about to blow up either on manufactured or legitimate reasons,” said Uri Landesman, president of hedge fund Platinum Partners in New York.

He said if the market thought a deal was in real danger, the S&P 500 would slide below 1,400. It stands now near 1,435, not far from a two-month high.

The CBOE Volatility Index surged 11.5 percent to 17.36, but has remained relatively stable. Its 14- 50- and 200-day averages are all within 1.1 points.

Landesman said the VIX’s stability indicates “the bulls have control of this market still.”

Banks and energy shares – groups that outperform during periods of economic expansion – have led recent gains, indicating a shift to focusing on a growing economy as Wall Street looks past the budget talks.

Defensive sectors led Wednesday’s downturn, with the S&P health care sector index down 1.1 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 98.99 points, or 0.74 percent, to 13,251.97. The S&P 500 lost 10.98 points, or 0.76 percent, to 1,435.81. The Nasdaq Composite fell 10.17 points, or 0.33 percent, to 3,044.36.

Herbalife Ltd shares tumbled 12.1 percent to $37.34 after William Ackman, one of the world’s biggest hedge fund managers, said he is shorting the stock of the weight management products company.

Oracle shares helped cap the Nasdaq’s loss after the company reported earnings that beat expectations on strong software sales growth. Oracle jumped 3.7 percent to $34.09.

Knight Capital Group Inc climbed 5.4 percent to $3.51 after it agreed to be bought by Getco Holdings in a deal valued at $1.4 billion. The stock, which nearly collapsed after a trading error in August, remains down about 70 percent so far this year.

Shares of Chinese display advertising provider Focus Media Holding Ltd jumped 6.7 percent to $25.52 after it agreed to be bought by a consortium of private equity funds led by the Carlyle Group for about $3.6 billion.

Data showed homebuilding permits touched their highest level in nearly 4-1/2 years in November. The PHLX housing index fell 0.8 percent, but has gained 66.4 percent this year as the housing market has turned the corner.

About 6.9 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, slightly above the daily average so far this year of about 6.45 billion shares.

Advancing and declining issues were almost even on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

Currencies

The yen languished near 20-month lows against its U.S. peer on Thursday, but trading was choppy in thin conditions with yen bears possibly suffering a case of cold feet as the Bank of Japan’s policy decision loomed.

Facing intense political pressure, the BOJ is ikely to expand its 91-trillion-yen ($1 trillion) asset-buying and lending program by 10 trillion yen and could consider adopting a 2 percent inflation target. A decision is due between 0330-0530 GMT.

The prospect of more yen pouring into the economy has already helped drive the Japanese currency down almost 9 percent on the greenback since September.

The dollar stood at 84.16 yen, having risen as high as 84.62 overnight, a level not seen since April 2011. The euro fetched 111.14 yen after hitting a 16-month peak of 112.59.

“Pressure on the BOJ to act is strong,” said Sebastien Galy, strategist at Societe Generale.

“At the same time, they will be keen on maintaining their credibility and insisting that the bigger problem is a fiscal one. The odds are that the BOJ may do enough not to frighten the markets too much, but leave major decisions to January.”

With markets already very bearish on the yen, traders warned a lack of bold action could see short positions squeezed, leading to a sharp rebound in the Japanese currency.

“We may see the yen regain its footing over the next 24-hours of trading should Governor Masaaki Shirakawa take a greater stand in preserving the central bank’s independence,” said David Song, currency analyst at DailyFX.

The yen and U.S. dollar, both seen as safe haven currencies, saw a small reprieve after talks to resolve the U.S. fiscal impasse appeared to have taken a turn for the worse.

The Republicans announced plans to put an alternative tax plan to a vote in the House this week that would largely disregard the progress made so far in negotiations, prompting President Barack Obama to threaten to veto it should Congress approve.

“Democrats and Republicans continued to try to frighten each other into gaining the upper hand. They mostly managed to bring in a mild wave of profit taking in the markets,” Galy added.

That saw the euro retreat to $1.3204 from an 8-1/2 month high around $1.3309. As a result, the dollar index bounced to 79.414 from 79.008.

The Australian dollar took a hit as well, slipping to one-week lows of $1.0470 to be more than a full cent below last week’s three-month peak.

Also under pressure, the New Zealand currency slid to a near two-week low around $0.8329 after data showed the economy slowed more than expected in the third quarter.

Gross domestic product expanded a mere 0.2 percent in the quarter, half of market expectations, and following downwardly revised 0.3 percent growth in the second quarter.

“It means there’s more chance of a rate cut than a hike in 2013, but our base case remains steady policy for a long time to come,” said Michael Turner, strategist, RBC Capital Markets.

Source:  Reuters.com

The information set out herein has been obtained from various public sources and is by way of information only. Broadgate Financial can accept no liability of any sort in relation thereto and readers should obtain their own verification of any statement before making any decision which may have any financial or other impact.

Neither the information nor the opinions herein constitute, or are they to be construed as, an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell investments.

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